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Scenario for Pitt to Win the ACC Coastal Division

Scenario for Pitt to Win the ACC Coastal Division

Thanks to a couple results from yesterday, Pitt’s road to the ACC Coastal title became very clear.

The Panthers next opponent Virginia Tech, and Miami both lost which significantly helped Pitt’s chances.

Here’s the easiest way to break this down: if Pitt wins their next two games they’ll be division champs.

If Pitt can beat Virginia Tech this Saturday and then Wake Forest on the road, they’ll win the Coastal Division and play in the ACC Championship game on December 1 in Charlotte.


Pitt 4-1
Virginia 4-2
Virginia Tech 3-2
Georgia Tech  3-3
Duke 2-3
Miami, Fla. 2-3
North Carolina 1-5

What chances do the computers give Pitt of pulling this off?

According to ESPNSTATSINFO Projection:

Pitt 42%
Virginia Tech 19%
Miami 16%
Virginia 14%
Georgia Tech 10%


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What’s the difference between ESPN stats info and ESPN football power index? Because according to ESPN FPI, Pitt is supposed to lose all 3 of its final 3 games. Granted, the chance of winning against VT and WF are close to 50-50 (though it’s only about a 15% chance of winning against Miami).

Obviously FPI had Pitt losing against pretty much everyone else, too, and we are sitting at 5-4.

Joseph Steigerwald

The FPI is an advanced stats metric of a bunch of different factors that tries to determine how good a team really is, not really taking into account record. Statsandinfo probably doesn’t get that in depth.


Thank you. Interesting that the more in depth stats don’t think we will beat anyone. Narduzzi and Co. need to keep proving them wrong!

Section 122
Section 122

We are talking about a team that had a 99% chance of beating Houston a few year back before 3 onside kicks. I’ll believe it when it happens.


[…] Scenario for Pitt to Win the ACC Coastal Division […]

Panther Bill
Panther Bill

The VTech game is the most important (to hold the tiebreaker against the Hokies). There are several likely scenarios where all Pitt has to do is beat VTech this weekend (and have Virginia lose once to VTech or GTECH AND VTech beat Miami). Pitt could fall to WF and Miami and win the Coastal at 6-6 (5-3 in conference). Saturday’s game is the most important, though. As you said, though, 2 wins out of the next 3 games wraps it up for Pitt.

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