It’s April, I know. It’s only April. But ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index gives Pitt a 10.2 percent chance to make the 2022 College Football Playoff.
Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Notre Dame, Texas, Michigan, Oklahoma, Pitt and Auburn round out FPI’s Top 10. Of course, the list means nothing, but it’s interesting to see just what the algorithm expects out of Pitt this early in the offseason.
With a 14.6 FPI score, which is ninth in college football, Pitt is projected a 9.6-2.8 record in 2022, with a 1.4 percent chance to win out and a 99.8 percent chance to win at least six games.
The model gives Pitt a 44.8 percent chance to win the Coastal division and a 15.8 percent chance to win the ACC outright. And a 10.2 percent chance to make the CFP playoffs, 2.5 percent chance to advance to the title game and 0.7 percent chance of bringing it back to Pittsburgh.
Clemson, despite last season’s struggles, is an overwhelming favorite to win the ACC (74.7 percent chance to win the Atlantic division and 58.7 percent chance to win ACC).
Miami, with a 12.3 FPI score and 18th ranking, has the second-highest percentage to win the Coastal (27.7 percent) and third-highest odds to win the ACC (8.6 percent). North Carolina, a 10.9 FPI score and 22nd ranking, has a 22.4 percent chance to win the Coastal and six percent chance to win the ACC.
North Carolina State (9.7, 26th) and Wake Forest (9.4, 30th) appear to be hamstrung by Clemson’s overwhelming odds to win the Atlantic and ACC.
With a non-conference schedule featuring West Virginia, Tennessee, Western Michigan and Rhode Island and only North Carolina and Miami (avoiding all three Atlantic powerhouses), Pitt’s 2022 schedule is light.
Of course, with a loss to a Group of Five and “lesser” ACC opponent in 2021, who knows what will happen in 2022. But Pitt is well set up for another run this season. And ESPN’s FPI appears to agree with that sentiment.