Pitt has taken a bit of a tumble in ESPN’s Football Power Index, falling outside the Top 10 to sit at No. 20 — fourth in the ACC. However, FPI’s game-by-game win probability is still in Pitt’s favor.
Let’s check back in on Pitt’s FPI first. With an 11.1 rating, tied with North Carolina but one spot behind in the ranking, Pitt has a projected 8.7-3.5 record with a 0.3 percent chance to win out.
FPI gives Pitt a 98.7 percent chance to win six games, a 24% chance to win the ACC Coastal division and a 6.8% to win the ACC outright. Pitt also has a 1.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff, a 0.3% chance to make the national championship and a 0.1% chance to win it.
So… you’re saying there’s a chance?
Those numbers represent a sharp drop from FPI’s initial projections in April. Pitt and Miami have basically flip-flopped, but UNC has somehow jumped ahead of Pitt too.
PFI’s game-by-game predictor, however, has Pitt favored in all but two games this season. The percentage is ESPN’s FPI chance of winning the game.
West Virginia — 78%
FPI has Pitt beating West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl nearly eight out of 10 times. Not as high as I’d probably put it in the renewal of one of the biggest rivalries in college football, but I like Pitt in this one.
Tennessee — 63%
This might be Pitt’s toughest game in 2022, probably not the most important when it comes to postseason goals, but it’s at Acrisure once again. I’d probably have this one closer to a coin flip in Pitt’s favor.
West Michigan — 88%
Sounds about right here. These aren’t last season’s Broncos. But the memory will certainly be there.
Rhode Island — 99%
100% would’ve been disrespectful.
Georgia Tech — 86%
At home against a depleted Georgia Tech squad, yeah, this one sounds about right too.
Virginia Tech — 87%
Against another depleted squad at home? Let’s keep it rolling.
Louisville — 53%
Basically a coin flip on the road at Louisville. I think this is a big game on Pitt’s schedule, but any team with a really good quarterback will give Pitt fits. A coin flip is solid here.
North Carolina — 38%
I know this is in Chapel Hill, but less than a 40% chance to win? That’s ambitious. I don’t think Pitt will lose to UNC, but I guess ESPN feels like it will finally be UNC’s year.
Syracuse — 82%
Sean Tucker is certainly a stud, surrounded by a ton of returning production, but Pitt is built to neutralize his likes. And it’s at home. 80% is about right.
Virginia — 68%
Brennan Armstrong is one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC, and he’s going to be hard to stop. UVa isn’t as good as last season, but this one seems maybe a tad bit high. A good quarterback will always raise an eyebrow.
Duke — 93%
Yeah. Duke is in trouble.
Miami — 30%
And we arrive at what will likely be Pitt’s most important game in 2022. This Miami team, with a great quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke, will be tough to beat. And this game could decide the division. I would give Pitt higher than a 30 percent chance to win.
A 10-2 season (6-2 ACC) would be a good season, and in an open Coastal, that could be enough to once again win the division.
Awesome. Makes for re-alignment to B10 that much more feasible given Narduzzi already indicated we could go there and Win. He was not trashing the B10, he was Wink-Wink indicating PITT to the Big10 if ACC loses Clemson, FSU, Miami… Wink-Wink. People took it the Wrong way. It was a subliminal message they are primed to move too. #h2p, little brother ready to come punch big brother in da’ mouf (i.e. State Pen. U.).
Spot on brother!