By The Numbers: Looking at Pitt’s NCAA Tournament Chances Based on Recent NET History
Selection Sunday has arrived, and Pitt fans across the country are eagerly waiting to find out if their beloved Panthers have qualified for this year’s NCAA Tournament.
The Panthers have not made the tournament since the 2015-16 season and have put together a 22-11 season.
The Panthers went 14-3 at home, 7-5 on the road, and 1-3 on neutral courts. Pitt went 4-4 in Quad One games, 3-5 in Quad Two games, 5-1 in Quad 3 games, and 10-1 in Quad Four games. The Panthers currently rank No. 67 in the NCAA’s NET rankings.
Here are some statistical categories that Pitt falls into along with recent NCAA Tournament history.
Won 41% to 60% of its Quad One games X Won 61% to 80% of its Conference games.
Pitt won 50% of its Quad One games this season and won 70% (14 of 20) of its conference games.
27 of 35 teams that fell into this bucket in the past two years made the NCAA Tournament (77.14%).
However, 100% (19 of 19) power conference teams that fell into this category made the tournament.
One of the recent ACC teams to fall into this bucket was the 2021-22 Miami squad, which finished 23-10 (15-7 ACC) and was awarded a No. 10 seed in the tournament.
Won 41% to 60% of its Quad One games X Had one Quad Four loss.
Pitt won 50% of its Quad One games and lost a Quad Four game. Those two are certainly a rare combination, as only six teams in the past two years have fallen into this bucket.
Just 1 out of the six teams (16.67%) that finished in these categories in the past two years made the NCAA Tournament. That was Rutgers in the 2021-22 tournament, which finished 18-13 (12-9 in Big Ten). However, Rutgers was the only power conference program to fall into this category, and the Scarlet Knights made the tournament. The other teams that fell into the bucket were: George Mason, SMU, South Dakota St., Tulsa, and Wofford.
Won 61% to 80% of its non-Conference games X Won 61% to 80% of its overall games.
Pitt won 22 of its 33 games this season (66.67%). Pitt went 8-5 in non-conference play this season (61.5%).
37 of the 83 teams that fell into this bucket in the past two years made the NCAA Tournament (44.58%). However, 16 of 17 power-conference programs (94.12%) that fell into this category made the tournament.
The only team that didn’t make the tournament with these metrics was ’21-’22 Colorado: 21-11, 13-9 PAC 12).
Won 41% to 60% of its Road Games X Won 22 total games.
Pitt won 7 of its 12 (58.3%) road games this season and finished with 22 wins.
Out of the four power conference programs to fall into this bucket in the past two years, three of the four (75%) of the teams made the NCAA Tournament:
’20-’21 Arkansas: 22-6, 14-5 SEC: No. 3 seed.
’20-’21 Colorado: 22-8, 16-7 PAC 12: No. 5 seed.
’21-’22 Michigan State: 22-12, 13-10 Big Ten: No. 7 seed.
’21-’22 Texas A&M: 22-12, 12-10 SEC: No. 1 seed in the NIT. Advanced to the NIT finals.
The 2022-23 NCAA Tournament Selection show will tip off on CBS at 6 p.m. est.