Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and your family. I hope your day is filled with great food and winning bets. Yesterday we had another down day as we went 1-2 on the day. Marquette was able to get us a cover by the skin of their teeth. The Penguins could not get anything past Jonathan Quick and Pitt basketball could not keep pace with Florida in the second half. We are 11-10 overall.
For Thanksgiving today, we have a great slate of football games and college basketball games. Though we won’t be taking any college basketball today, there are a few games I will be keeping an eye on.
Look for North Carolina to cover vs. Villanova and for Arizona to blowout Michigan St. I also like the Under today in the Michigan/Stanford game. As for the prime time NFL game tonight, against my judgment I am going to lean towards the Under in San Francisco/Seattle. Look for Brock Purdy to have another great game against a team he has dominated against over the past two games.
Now onto the picks!
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-8.) O/U 47.5 12:30 pm on Fox
Dan Campbell has accomplished a lot since he took over the Lions in 2021. Once a laughing stock of the NFL, Campbell has Detroit poised for their first playoff appearance since 2016. There is one thing Campbell has yet to achieve yet: win on Thanksgiving.
The Lions have dropped two close games on Thanksgiving under Campbell. In reality, Detroit has not won a game on Thanksgiving since Obama was in the White House. Their last win came in 2016 when Jim Caldwell was head coach, a 16-13 win over the Minnesota Vikings.
Though I believe Campbell in the Lions will get their first win on Thanksgiving in quite some time, the ML is way too high at -400 to take straight up. You will need to bet $400 to win $100, which is out of the question.
For this game, I will be taking the over 47.5 points. Without Aaron Jones, the Packers will be leaning heavy on their passing game in this one. And with the offensive firepower that the Lions have shown this season, they will have to play keep up on offense against the Lions leaky defense, which is still desperately missing CJ Gardner-Johnson. Look for Jayden Reed and Sam LaPorta to find the end zone.
Over 47.5 Covers, Green Bay Packers 23 – Detroit Lions 31
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-13.5) O/U 47.5 4:30 pm on CBS
As with the Lions, the Cowboys are a staple with Thanksgiving football. And like the Lions, the Cowboys have struggled on Thanksgiving especially in the covering department.
Dallas were able to pick up their first win on Thanksgiving since 2018 against the New York Giants, but they failed to cover the -10 spread. Their win in 2018 was the last time they covered a game on Thanksgiving, which was against Washington when they were still the Redskins. As the Washington Football, they blew out the Cowboys in 2020.
Though I do believe the Cowboys will take care of business and pick up back-to-back wins on Thanksgiving, I believe this spread is way too and is a knee jerk reaction to recent events. Washington was completely outclassed in their loss to the Tommy DeVito led Giants, who ended up sweeping the season series with the win. But the Commanders were a favorite in both of those games, a role they have not thrived in. The role they have thrived in is as a road underdog.
Washington is an incredible 5-0 ATS the spread as a road underdog in 2023. This includes outright wins as an underdog against the Broncos, Falcons and Patriots. Though I don’t think the Commanders will have any real shot to win this game, I do think they will keep it close enough to cover. It may even happen on a late garbage time touchdown. Look for the Dallas defense to get another touchdown along with Brian Robinson Jr.
Commanders Cover +13.5, Washington Commanders 24 – Dallas Cowboys 35
Ole Miss Rebels (-10) at Mississippi St Bulldogs O/U 54.5 7:30 pm on ESPN
The Egg Bowl is one of the most underrated college football rivalries. These schools really don’t like each other. And with college qualification on the line for Mississippi St, will be just as intense as ever.
Though Ole Miss is out of the SEC West race, they still have a shot at a New Years 6 bowl game with a win vs the Bulldogs. And after losing to the Bulldogs last year, Lane Kiffin and his Rebels will be looking for revenge against a team in Mississippi St that is struggling to score points against SEC teams.
In their last five games vs SEC opponents, the Bulldogs have scored 10, 3, 13, 7 and 17 points respectively. Unsurprisingly, they are 1-4 in those games beating an even more disappointing Arkansas team 7-3.
Coupled with the fact that the last 5 Egg Bowls have gone Under the total, I love the Under 54.5 in this game.
Under 54.5 Covers, Ole Miss Rebels 27 – Mississippi St 17