Will Pitt Reach the Top 25 in 2024?

There’s no question that the Pitt football program desperately would like to supplant last year’s nearly double-digit loss season with a double-digit mark in the win column in 2024.

First things first though — the Panthers need to get back to winning football. That’s a three-win improvement from last year, which is much more realistic than suddenly jumping into the ACC Championship conversation.

Once on that trajectory, something else can become viable and that is receiving recognition from the national media.

On Monday, the Associated Press (AP) released its initial Top 25 rankings of the season and it’s safe to assume that the Panthers were nowhere in shouting distance of that list with what transpired last fall.

While the AP Poll only reveals the 25-best programs with a few others receiving votes, looking on a broader scale, the Panthers are sitting at No. 53 heading into the season, according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index (FPI). Most recently, one of the national media analysts, RJ Young of FOX, situated the Panthers at No. 91 in his preseason rankings.

It seems worlds away, but the Panthers are not that far off from their last visit within the poll when they ranked 22nd at the end of the 2022 season.

The stretch from 2021-2022 set new heights for the Pitt program in the 21st Century. The pinnacle of that run came with the Panthers reaching No. 13 in the AP Poll following the ACC title game victory over Wake Forest.

While that time period felt like a long time coming, it all started with Kenny Pickett’s freshman season in 2017 when they went 5-7, which was the worst season at the time under head coach Pat Narduzzi. The following year, the Panthers rebounded and eventually broke into the AP rankings by Week 13 at No. 24.

With all of that, it begs some questions for this year’s Panthers: Are they destined to remain largely outside the national polls? Or, how high can the Panthers truly climb in the ranks, and if so, can they get into the AP Top 25 Poll at some point during the 2024 campaign?

It could take all season before the Panthers move into striking range of the polls, but what part of their schedule benefits them the most?

There’s no doubt that Pitt’s first four games are all winnable. Games against the FPI’s lowest-ranked team in Kent State to start the season and FCS Youngstown State are obligatory buy games and must-wins.

It’s the two middle games that pose the challenge — Cincinnati and West Virginia. If Pitt can get its offense into full operating power by Week 2, there’s a good chance that the Panthers can walk into Nippert Stadium and spell some revenge against the Bearcats, who were picked No. 14 in the Big 12 Preseason Poll.

On the other hand, West Virginia returns to Pittsburgh the following week for the Backyard Brawl. The Mountaineers and quarterback Garrett Greene are starting to receive some preseason hype around the program as a team to watch. If the Panthers can pull some magic out as they did in 2022 at Acrisure Stadium, they would be in good shape, but most likely still on the outside looking in of the 25-best college teams.

By the end of Week 5, the Panthers could very well be receiving some major votes or even slip in the back end of the poll if they can find a way to beat North Carolina. However, Pitt will need to exorcise its Chapel Hill demons, never winning a game against North Carolina at Kenan Stadium.

It may be hard to envision the Panthers firing out of the gates and going 5-0, but, if they do, big things would be ahead beyond just reaching the AP Poll.

Let’s come back down to Earth, however, and say Pitt goes 3-2 — splitting the two rivalry games and a loss at North Carolina.

The next best odds at getting into the national picture come when Pitt returns home from North Carolina to take on an unknown team in California. With home-field advantage, Pitt should be favored if both teams are hovering around .500 heading into that game and that matchup could very well be the turning point of Pitt’s season.

Pitt could double up after a week off and Syracuse coming to town on a Thursday evening. Syracuse is a real dark horse in the ACC with the addition of Ohio State transfer quarterback Kyle McCord and new head coach Fran Brown, but Pitt has never lost to the Orange on home turf since moving to Heinz Field.

Relatively speaking, Pitt could be 5-2 before traveling to Texas to take on SMU on the first weekend of November. SMU is receiving votes (33) in the first poll. The Mustangs finished last season No. 22 in the AP Poll after winning the AAC title before transitioning into their new conference.

This will be a tough matchup for Pitt, and, at this point, a toss-up. This three-game stretch of Cal-Syracuse-SMU has a lot of potential for Pitt before leaning into arguably its easiest Power Four matchup of the season against Virginia.

Splitting those games between SMU and Virginia would leave Pitt at 6-3 and a win away from once again making headway in the rankings conversation and, by this point, attention would turn to the College Football Playoff Rankings.

That’s before the toughest two-game stretch of the season. On Nov. 16, Clemson comes to town. The Tigers currently rank No. 14 and that matchup is followed by Louisville on the road, a team that is sitting just outside the top 25 with 111 votes.

Of course, how teams handle themselves in the back end of the poll will be key in order for Pitt to slip in at some point in the season.

With all things considered, Pitt has a chance to improve upon last year’s abysmal season and could be centered around a high point of cracking the AP Top 25 with its best chance coming either before Week 5 or at the end of October.

Here’s how Pitt has ranked in the AP Poll over the Narduzzi era: