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Pitt Rising, Still on Bubble in Joe Lunardi’s ESPN Bracketology

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Ken Pomeroy's analytics rankings have updated, and seem to really like Pitt's performance against Murray State.

Pitt is off to a solid 3-0 start to the 2024-25 season, and is being recognized by national media members for its undefeated campaign.

The Panthers have taken down Radford, Murray State, and Gardner-Webb by double digits, even beating Radford by 40. After beginning the season on ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi’s bubble in his bracketology prediction, the Panthers are now moving up.

In Tuesday’s edition of Lunardi’s bracketology, Pitt was in the “last four byes” section of his prediction, moving up from the preseason spot where Lunardi had it: the last team in the “last four in” section.

Pitt Projected to be ‘Last Team In’ in 2025 NCAA Tournament

Pitt hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since the 2022-23 season, in which it went all the way from the First Four to the Round of 32.

This offseason, the NCAA added two new metrics to consideration for the NCAA Tournament field.

The two metrics — Bart Torvik’s “T-Rank” and Wins Above Bubble — will be considered when the committee is weighing prospective NCAA Tournament teams.

“The committee has always valued different data points and metrics to assist with its evaluation process, and these two metrics have increasingly been referenced by members in recent years,” NCAA Senior VP of Basketball Dan Gavitt said in a press release. “Adding them to the team sheet ensures that all 12 members easily have access to this data. The Torvik rankings, along with BPI and KenPom, give the committee three predictive ratings, while the WAB, Strength of Record and KPI give them three results-based metrics, all of which, in addition to the NET, will be beneficial to the team evaluation process.”

The NCAA announced this addition to the selection committee’s team sheet at its summer meetings. It also announced that the 2026 Division II and III men’s basketball championships and the NIT semifinals and finals will take place in Indianapolis the same weekend as the Division I Final Four. Here is more information on the new metrics in consideration.

“The committee has always valued different data points and metrics to assist with its evaluation process, and these two metrics have increasingly been referenced by members in recent years,” Gavitt added. “Adding them to the team sheet ensures that all 12 members easily have access to this data. The Torvik rankings, along with BPI and KenPom, give the committee three predictive ratings, while the WAB, Strength of Record and KPI give them three results-based metrics, all of which, in addition to the NET, will be beneficial to the team evaluation process.”

For reference, Pitt’s 2022-23 team rated significantly lower than the average NCAA Tournament team in T-Rank, coming in at No. 72 in the country. However, the 2023-24 team — the one that did not make the tournament — finished the season at No. 30 overall. Saint John’s (No. 16), Pitt (No. 30), Villanova (No. 31), Wake Forest (No. 35), Seton Hall (No. 38), and Utah (No. 40) were the highest-ranked Torvik teams that did not earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

“The core of T-Rank is calculating offensive and defensive efficiency: points scored and points allowed per possession (“PPP” = points per possession, often rendered as points per 100 possessions),” Torvik said in a blog post explaining the stat. “Although coaches like Dean Smith and Bo Ryan have long relied on PPP, it really hit the big time when Ken Pomeroy popularized it about a decade ago.”

Pitt will now play against West Virginia at 8 p.m. on Friday.

Sandy Schall, Coldwell Banker
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Terry
Terry
28 days ago

We’re 3 games into the season guys and we’re already talking about bubble teams cmon site that’s ridiculous

Brooklyn Bridge
Brooklyn Bridge
28 days ago

Joe, and his nonsensical bracket influence on the selection process needs to disappear.
Should have zero credibility after last year (and frankly before).
Same “metrics” he used this time last year while promoting Mizzou (0-18 in Big 12 play) as a solid tournament team when they played Pitt.

Tim
Tim
27 days ago

I think it’s November……jeez.

Rob
Rob
27 days ago

In reality, this guy really only needs to work one week a year, the week before the NCAA Tourn. He has to justify his perceioved intelligence by doing these ridiculous evaluations after one week of the season. I’ll start paying attention around Feb. 28th.

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