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Pitt Falls to Eight Seed in Latest NCAA Tournament Predictions

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After losing two-straight games, Pitt has fallen in several different bracketology predictions for the NCAA Tournament.

After losing two-straight games, Pitt has fallen in several different bracketology predictions.

Pitt recently lost to Duke (at Duke) and to Louisville at home, falling to 3-2 in ACC play and 14-4 overall. The Panthers, who opened at No. 5 in the NCAA NET rankings, have dropped down to No. 27 in recent weeks in those same rankings. Now, as more and more national media members predict this year’s NCAA Tournament field, the Panthers have slipped down in the rankings.

Fox Sports bracketologist Mike DeCourcy recently slated the Panthers as an eight-seed, playing against No. 9 UCLA in the South region.

In ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s latest prediction, Pitt was in the field as a No. 8 seed in Milwaukee playing against No. 9 San Diego State. Lunardi has five ACC teams making the field of 68: Duke (1 seed), Pitt (8 seed), Clemson (9 seed), Louisville (8 seed), and North Carolina (10 seed).

Check out Lunardi’s bracket here.

Pitt was listed as highly as a No. 5 seed earlier in the season.

Pitt Picked as Five Seed in Latest NCAA Tournament Bracketology

This offseason, the NCAA added two new metrics to consideration for the NCAA Tournament field.

The two metrics — Bart Torvik’s “T-Rank” and Wins Above Bubble — will be considered when the committee is weighing prospective NCAA Tournament teams.

“The committee has always valued different data points and metrics to assist with its evaluation process, and these two metrics have increasingly been referenced by members in recent years,” NCAA Senior VP of Basketball Dan Gavitt said in a press release. “Adding them to the team sheet ensures that all 12 members easily have access to this data. The Torvik rankings, along with BPI and KenPom, give the committee three predictive ratings, while the WAB, Strength of Record and KPI give them three results-based metrics, all of which, in addition to the NET, will be beneficial to the team evaluation process.”

The NCAA announced this addition to the selection committee’s team sheet at its summer meetings. It also announced that the 2026 Division II and III men’s basketball championships and the NIT semifinals and finals will take place in Indianapolis the same weekend as the Division I Final Four. Here is more information on the new metrics in consideration.

“The committee has always valued different data points and metrics to assist with its evaluation process, and these two metrics have increasingly been referenced by members in recent years,” Gavitt added. “Adding them to the team sheet ensures that all 12 members easily have access to this data. The Torvik rankings, along with BPI and KenPom, give the committee three predictive ratings, while the WAB, Strength of Record and KPI give them three results-based metrics, all of which, in addition to the NET, will be beneficial to the team evaluation process.”

For reference, Pitt’s 2022-23 team rated significantly lower than the average NCAA Tournament team in T-Rank, coming in at No. 72 in the country. However, the 2023-24 team — the one that did not make the tournament — finished the season at No. 30 overall. Saint John’s (No. 16), Pitt (No. 30), Villanova (No. 31), Wake Forest (No. 35), Seton Hall (No. 38), and Utah (No. 40) were the highest-ranked Torvik teams that did not earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

“The core of T-Rank is calculating offensive and defensive efficiency: points scored and points allowed per possession (“PPP” = points per possession, often rendered as points per 100 possessions),” Torvik said in a blog post explaining the stat. “Although coaches like Dean Smith and Bo Ryan have long relied on PPP, it really hit the big time when Ken Pomeroy popularized it about a decade ago.”

Sandy Schall, Coldwell Banker

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