Is Pitt Underrated? ESPN’s FPI Provides Ranking, Projects Record

The 2025 college football season is roughly two and a half months out from commencing and it’s never too early to start taking stock on how Pitt is perceived for the upcoming year.

Many outlets have released an early top 25 and some even going as far as ranking every team from top to bottom. However, one of the more compelling and computer-generated models that takes a multitude of data points into consideration is that of ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).

At the beginning of June, the FPI was updated following spring camp and new roster additions.

When evaluating Pitt’s spot in the rankings, it begs the question of if the Panthers are too low and underrated?

According to the FPI, Pitt ranks No. 58 nationally. Its projected record is 5.9-6.1 and the Panthers are given just a 59.2% chance to win six games and a 1.5% chance to make the playoff.

In the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), Pitt is ranked No. 12 and is given 0.7% shot to win the conference championship.

NEW: ESPN’s computer-generated FPI has updated for the 2025 College Football season👀https://t.co/ZQxmtKVmx9 pic.twitter.com/jsmFgvjnTX

— On3 (@On3sports) June 3, 2025

The bar for the upcoming season was lowered after Pitt lost six games in a row to end the 2024 campaign, including a bowl loss against Toledo in December, which spoiled a historic 7-0 start to the year.

Still, the Panthers are bringing back some key contributors from last year’s team, including Eli Holstein, who battled injuries in the back half of the season. All-American Desmond Reid is back at running back, Kenny Johnson is expected to take over the No. 1 role at wide receiver and veteran tight end Jake Overman brings experience to the offense.

Pitt also targeted the portal for offensive line help and brought in a trio of experienced pieces in Jeff Persi, Kendall Stanley and Keith Gouveia to go along with returners Lyndon Cooper, BJ Williams and Ryan Baer.

Defensively, Pitt’s linebacker corps looks to be one of the best in the country with First-Team All-American Kyle Louis, along with Rasheem Biles and Braylan Lovelace. Pitt’s defensive tackle room is deep as well with at least five guys that can rotate in and make an impact.

Defensive end, cornerback and safety are all positions that will need to take another step this season if Pitt is going to surpass its finish from last year.

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”