Vukovcan: A Bit of Concern For Pitt’s March Madness Hopes Following Latest NET Rankings

Saturday night was filled with plenty of excitement for Pitt fans.

The Pitt men’s basketball team picked up their 21st win of the season on Senior Night and with that win, they clinched 4th place in the ACC. That’s significant because it’s the highest Pitt has ever finished in the conference and the first time they’ve ever earned a double bye in the ACC Tournament.

When you consider that Pitt was picked to finish 12th in the preseason poll, started 1-5 in conference play, turned things around and instead finished 21-10 and 12-8, it’s clear that it has been a heck of a season for Jeff Capel and the Panthers.

In previous times, finishing 4th in the ACC with 21 wins was a lock to make the NCAA Tournament but unfortunately times have changed because of the impact metrics have on who receives the bids to March Madness.

So, all the excitement last night has been washed away with the latest NET Rankings and KenPom.com Ratings.

Pitt started the day ranked No. 43 in the NET rankings, but despite winning and having a handful of teams lose that were ahead of them on Saturday, Pitt actually dropped a spot in the rankings. That is the same case with KenPom’s rankings as the Panthers dropped 3 spots. The goal was to try and enter the 30’s and instead Pitt dropped, which isn’t a good thing.

Considering that the bracketologists most times align with what the metrics are, don’t look for Pitt to move any in the actual bracketology. When they’re released over the next 24 hours, Pitt will likely stay as the Next 4 Out.

NET RANKINGS (MARCH 10TH)
35) Florida (dropped 7 spots)
36) Colorado State (stayed same)
37) Wake Forest (moved up 4 spots)
38) St. John’s (dropped 1 spot)
39) TCU (dropped 1 spot)
40) Nebraska (dropped 2 spots)
41) Cincinnati (rose 4 spots)
42) Mississippi State (dropped 3 spots)
43) Oklahoma (dropped 3 spots)
44) PITT (dropped 1 spot)
45) Washington State (dropped 1 spot)
46) Texas A&M (moved up 3 spots)
47) Drake (dropped 1 spot)
48) Princeton (moved up 3 spots)
49) South Carolina (dropped 2 spots)
50) Northwestern (moved up 2 spots)

KEN POM RATINGS
35) Nevada +17.10
36) Colorado State +17.08
37) Florida Atlantic +16.93
38) Boise State +16.89
39) Mississippi State +16.76
40) Oklahoma +16.52
41) Indiana State +16.45
42) Cincinnati +16.41
43) Northwestern +16.27
44) Utah State +16.06
45) Washington State +15.99
46) PITT +15.80
47) South Carolina +15.67
48) Texas A&M +15.53
49) Iowa +15.01
50) Utah +14.62

I’m going to go on a bit of a rant and it’s the same one that I had last year at this time and it’s about how the current system for March Madness is so flawed. Between the importance put into these computer rankings, items such as Quad 1/2/3 wins and just built in biased for certain conferences and coaches, it’s a bit of a joke.

I don’t care what any of the national bracketologists say or where they have Pitt. If they’d use their eyes, look at their overall and conference record, number of road wins and how they’ve been playing for the past 2 months, if Pitt isn’t a tournament team, then the current process for selecting a tournament field is broken. Another thing that should be considered by the committee but won’t be is the circumstances surround Pitt’s backcourt.

They’re one of the few or quite possibly the only team fighting for a bid to the postseason with an all-freshman backcourt. Much is being made about Pitt’s start of the season, in particular the losses to Missouri, Florida, Syracuse. No consideration will be given that those loses were at the start of the season with practically a brand-new lineup. Pitt hadn’t jelled yet and in fact, Jaland Lowe wasn’t in the starting lineup yet.

If Pitt were to play those teams now, there’s a very high probability that a couple of those losses would now be wins. The backcourt of Bub Carrington and Lowe is playing like one of the best backcourts in the entire country. I realize that it won’t be but some consideration should be given to that and a bit of common sense. However, that’s not likely a component for the NET and KenPom (LOL).

A few odds and ends that are on my mind this morning-
-I’m tired of hearing about how good the Mountain West Conference is. One of the reasons these metrics are so flawed is because of the value placed when playing one of these teams. Until someone other than San Diego State does something in the tournament, save the talk of how good the Mountain West Conference is. Keep in mind, if you exclude San Diego State, the Mountain West is 0-11 in NCAA Tournament games since 2019. Right now, they’re projected to get six bids which is laughable.

-If Rick Pitino and Tom Izzo weren’t coaching St. John’s and Michigan State, neither team would be as highly thought of as they are now. Michigan State has 18 wins and a below-average resume, yet they’re a lock for the tournament. Broken system. Same with Rick Pitino, who the national media just slobbers over.

-The national perception of the ACC is bad which is hurting Pitt but they’re a better conference in 2024 than the Big 10. Once again, the built-in perception of that conference isn’t reality. It’s an average conference with just two above average teams: Purdue and Illinois. No one in the group of Northwestern, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan State is better than Pitt, yet all five of those teams are a locked and penciled into the tournament. If you take out the terms Quad 1/2 wins, take out Ken Pom and actually look at who they’ve played and who they’ve beaten, none of them should be a lock.

I could continue but I’ll stop there.

Here’s the likely reality for where Pitt is at. As things stand right now, Pitt isn’t a tournament team and as they have for the last few weeks, are going to need help to get in.

More importantly, Pitt definitely needs another win and the good news is their next opponent is likely Wake Forest, a team they’re battling on the bubble.

If Pitt can win that game, I think they’re in but no one can ever predict what the tournament committee is thinking.

This is a good news/bad news situation. The bad news is that despite looking and playing like a tournament team, Pitt could very well be left out. The good news is that Pitt basketball is once again alive and well and very much relevant.

Buckle up and let’s see what the next few weeks have in store for us.