Despite a drop from the initial 44% chance to win the ACC Coastal way, way back in April, ESPN’s Football Power Index still gave Pitt a 24% chance to win the Coastal at the end of July.
Now at the midway point of the season, with six games gone and six still to go, FPI gives Pitt a 10.5% chance to win the division.
Pitt’s FPI score has dropped to 6.4, which is good for 43rd in the country, and the index projects a 7.1-5.0 record this season.
FPI projects Pitt with a 0.3% chance to win out, a 92.2% chance to win six games, a 10.5% chance to win the Coastal and a 1.9% chance to win the ACC outright. Obviously, a 0% chance to make the Playoffs this season.
FPI ranks Pitt as the eighth-best team in the ACC, second-best team in the Coastal behind North Carolina, and the two teams will meet in a couple of weeks. And with the Georgia Tech loss to Virginia Thursday night, both Pitt and UNC control their own destinies when it comes to winning the Coastal division.
Pitt starts with Louisville this Saturday night at Cardinal Stadium, and Pitt is a road underdog. ESPN’s FPI probability gives Pitt a 40.5% chance to win.
UNC, Syracuse, Virginia, Duke and Miami will cap Pitt’s season, with UNC, Virginia and Miami all featuring Pitt hitting the road.