PITTSBURGH – Pitt’s faint chances of making the NCAA Tournament could gain a significant boost in the next week. The Panthers (14-8, 5-6 ACC) hit the road for two straight against ACC teams on the tournament bubble.
Jeff Capel’s squad looks to three wins in a row Wednesday in Raleigh, North Carolina, against N.C. State (15-7, 7-4). A week from Tuesday, Pitt enters Charlottesville to battle Virginia (18-5, 9-3), who’s currently second in the ACC and in a prime position to fight for the conference crown.
With only three teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, including Virginia clinching in the last four byes, the margin for error is razor-thin and may require the Panthers to win eight of their last nine to go dancing for the second year in a row.
Ranked No. 64 in the NET and No. 67 by KenPom, Pitt sits tied for eighth in the conference with Syracuse, a team that’s beaten the Panthers twice but does not play a currently ranked opponent through the end of the regular season.
The Panthers rank higher than N.C. State in the NET (76) and KenPom (74) rankings but would suffice as a quad 2 victory. Pitt is 2-2 in quad 2 games. If the Wolfpack were slotted one spot higher at No. 75 in the NET, it would be considered a quad 1 win. Pitt is 1-4 in quad 1 matchups this year.
Virginia would certainly suffice as a quad 1 victory, ranked No. 32 in the NET, up 10 spots from the previous rankings. KenPom regards Virginia as the No. 47 team in the country. Wake Forest (37) is the highest ranked KenPom team the Panthers meet the rest of the way on Feb. 20 in Winston-Salem, followed by Clemson at No. 39. Pitt’s other opponents, Louisville (192), Virginia Tech (53), and Boston College (90). Wake Forest (42) and Clemson (37) two road tests against teams in the top 75 of the NET rankings and register as additional quad 1 games.
Beating N.C. State twice, to bookend the remaining schedule, creates a golden opportunity if you add an upset win at Virginia and taking care of business against struggling Louisville and Boston College teams. Clemson has also fallen off.
The perception of the ACC continues to fall dramatically and seemingly is worse every year since the pandemic canceled the 2020 NCAA Tournament. North Carolina and Duke are locks, Virginia has an inside track to dancing, but other than the three typical powerhouses, everyone else including Pitt, needs to scrape and claw to get noticed and shine under the nation’s brightest lights.
The Panthers need to treat every game like it’s their last. Make or break. Win or go home. Their tournament chances depend on it.
Pitt Basketball’s Remaining Schedule:
Wednesday, Feb. 7 – at. N.C. State
Tuesday, Feb. 13 – at. Virginia
Saturday, Feb. 17 – vs. Louisville
Tuesday, Feb. 20 – at. Wake Forest
Saturday, Feb. 24 – vs. Virginia Tech
Tuesday, Feb. 27 – at. Clemson
Saturday, Mar. 2 – at. Boston College
Tuesday, Mar. 5 – vs. Florida State
Saturday, Mar. 9 – vs. NC State
Pitt may be able to lose @ UVA or @ Clemson, and get consideration.
Lose both, Pitt will likely need two ACC tourney wins to get consideration.
Lose any 3, they must win ACC tourney.
Hindrances: A paltry 3 wins against Q1 & Q2 opponents. Even more devastating is that more than 25% of their games were/are against Q4 opponents.
I s that assuming they run the table against NCST Wake, VTech, FlaSt, BC, Louisville? Not likely. Every year is different, but last year 14-6 with 1 tournament win sent them to Dayton.
Yes, that was the assumption.
And, yes. I agree that it is unlikely.
14-6 (+1 ACCT), this year, would probably get them in (9-10 seed). But, with the NET and metrics based evaluators, it is not just winning-it’s how you win, and against whom.
They are not making the tournament unless they get to 22 wins. That is not happening. NIT is likely where they are headed. With only 1 senior that is still a winning and successful season.
No one asked for your opinion, but you already look stupid for your preseason prediction of 14-18. I knew you were watching. Hope you choked on your dinner. Have a nice day.
8 of the last 9. Plus a win in the ACC tourney. Basically 13 of the last 16, is a lot of momentum. It would be hard to keep them out with that end to the season. Unfortunately I think that’s what it takes at this point.