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Steelers-Browns Odds on ESPN BET
|PIT Steelers||+2.5 (-105)||O 32.5 (-120)||+110|
|CLE Browns||-2.5 (-115)||U 32.5 (Even)||-130|
If you’re staring at that laughably low point total, it’s not a typo. Sunday’s Steelers-Browns matchup has an over/under of 32.5 points, tied with 2022’s Saints-Browns Christmas Eve game for the lowest NFL total of the last ten years.
Despite a 6-3 record, the Steelers are 26th in points per game (17.3) and 29th in passing yards (180.3). They have been out-scored by 26 points and out-gained in every game. Yet there’s a reason I love the Steelers, not just to cover but to win outright.
The Browns’ offense survived an early-season injury to RB Nick Chubb, entering today’s game 11th in PPG (23.8) and second in rushing yards (147.9). But after Sunday’s epic, come-from-behind win in Baltimore, Cleveland lost QB Deshaun Watson to a season-ending shoulder injury.
Losing a running back is one thing, but losing your starting quarterback is entirely different. Especially when his replacement, fifth-round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, went 19-for-36 for 121 yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions in his lone start, a 28-3 Week 4 loss at home versus the Ravens.
DTR will take the field against a Steelers’ pass rush led by DPOTY contender T.J. Watt (10.5 sacks) and Alex Highsmith (4.5 sacks). The rookie took four sacks against Baltimore, and I’d expect something similar on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Steelers will welcome TE Pat Freiermuth back into the lineup after a five-game absence. Freiermuth should serve as a nice security blanket for Kenny Pickett, who’s quietly gone five games without an interception after throwing four in Weeks 1-4.
This will be a low-scoring game that possibly puts viewers to sleep. But I like Pickett to take care of the football more than the reckless Thompson-Robinson and Pittsburgh to do just enough to win yet again.
Pick: Steelers ML (+110)
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Here are the rest of the Week 11 matchups:
- Giants at Commanders (-8.5) – 1:00 p.m.
- Cowboys (-10.5) at Panthers – 1:00 p.m.
- Cardinals at Texans (-6) – 1:00 p.m.
- Chargers (-3) at Packers – 1:00 p.m.
- Titans at Jaguars (-6.5) – 1:00 p.m.
- Raiders at Dolphins (-13.5) – 1:00 p.m.
- Bears at Lions (-7.5) – 1:00 p.m.
- Buccaneers at 49ers (-12) – 4:05 p.m.
- Jets at Bills (-7) – 4:25 p.m.
- Seahawks at Rams (-1) – 4:25 p.m.
- Vikings at Broncos (-2.5) – 8:20 p.m. (SNF)
- Eagles at Chiefs (-2.5) – 8:15 p.m. (MNF)
Some of my favorite picks from this batch of games include Lions -7.5 and Bills -7. Although Justin Fields is back for Chicago, Detroit’s league-best 7-2 record against the spread convinced me to expect another cover. As for Buffalo, I’m banking on revenge against a division rival at home. Either the Bills blow the Jets out, or it’s time to hit the panic button.
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