Sports Betting
Friday’s Best ESPN BET Bets: Sun Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Cotton Bowl
As embattled former Steelers WR Antonio Brown would say, “Business is Boomin.” For the Winning Picks, that’s exactly what’s happening. Business is Boomin! We had another undefeated 3-0 night for the third consecutive day, matching our streak from last week. Rutgers held off a late surge by Miami to get the cover and the win. Mario Cristobal is one of the worst head coaches I’ve ever seen manage a game. He makes Mike Tomlin look like Tom Landry.
As for the other plays, Cleveland was able to build a lead and coast to the cover. Joe Flacco is playing at an elite level; it will be interesting to see if this translates to the playoffs. And as I stated yesterday, the Alamo Bowl can get whacky and that’s exactly what we got last night. The Over did cover, what it was tough sledding getting there. Both teams alternated runs: Arizona scored 13 unanswered, then Oklahoma scored 24 unanswered and finally Arizona scored 25 unanswered to finish off and win. Like I said, whacky. We move to 74-52-2 on the year.
We have another good slat of bowl games today including our first New Year’s 6 Bowl. I will be giving out plays for 3 of those games, but I won’t have an official play in the first matchup between Kentucky and Clemson. My real question in this game is if Dabo Swinney and his Tigers will come out with that same “everyone has written us off” energy.
I believe this game could be a springboard for Clemson going into next year, especially with Florida St trying to jump ship from the ACC (Clemson could go with them FYI). The lean on this game is Clemson covering. I don’t love it, but I believe they will be too much for Kentucky.
Now time for the Winning Picks!
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Oregon St Beavers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-6) O/U 40.5 Sun Bowl 2:00 PM on CBS
Last season, Pitt and UCLA played a wild game that saw the Panthers winning on a walk off field goal despite having numerous opt outs and transfers. We run into the same situation this year with both teams dealing with it, but only one team will have their head coach.
Oregon St head coach Jonathan Smith left the Beavers to become the next coach of Michigan St. Both the starting QB and backup are in the portal, so former starter Ben Gulbranson will get the start. Gulbranson lost only 2 games in 2022 and won their bowl in a blowout of Florida. Unfortunately, he will be without his starting running back, wide out and tight end along with other positions.
Notre Dame will also be starting a new quarterback as Steve Angeli gets the start for the Irish with Sam Hartman opting out. Starting running back Audric Estime and All-American tackle Joe Alt also are preparing for the draft and are not playing. The defense is pretty much the same as it’s been all year.
If almost any other team was playing Oregon St, I would side with the Beavers to pull the upset. However, Marcus Freeman is a no-nonsense head coach who will have Notre Dame ready, unlike Florida was last year. The Beavers will fight early but the Irish will pull away and cover in the end.
Notre Dame Covers -6, Oregon St Beavers 17 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 28
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Iowa St Cyclones (-10) at Memphis Tigers O/U 57.5 Liberty Bowl 3:30 PM on ESPN
The line on this game has had me scratching my head all week. Memphis will become the second team in as many weeks to play a bowl game in their home stadium. South Alabama blew out Eastern Michigan as a 17-point favorite in the 66 Ventures Bowl. Surprisingly, Memphis is not only an underdog in this game but a double-digit underdog.
And there is a reason for that: the Memphis defense has been bullied all year. The Tigers offense has had to carry them to the finish in shootouts versus the likes of North Texas and Charlotte, not exactly the cream of the crop in the AAC. Memphis will be missing their interceptions leader on defense in this game, so this young Iowa St offense could be the latest team to feast on this defense.
Though I do like Memphis to cover the erroneous spread (sprinkle a little on the MoneyLine if you’re feeling frisky), the official Winning Pick here is the Over 57.5. I believe both teams will score 30 points, and Memphis will need to with their weaknesses of defense.
Over 57.5 Covers, Iowa St Cyclones 35 Memphis Tigers 38
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Missouri Tigers vs Ohio St Buckeyes (-5.5) O/U 50 Cotton Bowl Classic 8:00 PM on ESPN
Our first New Year’s 6 Bowl is a game with a lot of questions around it, particularly involving one player. The status of Marvin Harrison Jr is up in the air for this game. He has not practiced all week for this game, but he hasn’t officially been ruled out or even opted out for the NFL Draft. My guess is he isn’t going to play, but nothing has been set in stone.
For Missouri, this is a program defying game and will be one of the biggest bowl wins in their school’s history. Eli Drinkwitz has done a fabulous job as head coach of the Tigers. Less than 15 years ago he was coaching high school football. Now he is in the biggest game of his coaching life.
For Ohio St, this is just another bowl game that is not the playoff. If the 12-team playoff was this season, you could see this game being one of the matchups. And don’t adjust your TVs when you are watching this game, Ohio St’s QB for this game is #33 Devin Brown. Yes, he is a quarterback and yes, he is wearing #33 for Sammy Baugh. Brown is one of the few 20-year-olds who knows who Sammy Baugh is. Good on him.
Given the status of Harrison Jr, I can’t give a spread bet on this game. I would lean taking the Tigers on the spread if he is officially inactive. The official Winning Pick will be the Over 50, which I think will hit even if Harrison is out. Missouri has enough offense to get us over this total.
Over 50 Covers, Missouri Tigers 27 Ohio St Buckeyes 31
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