Saturday night was filled with plenty of excitement for Pitt fans.
The Pitt men’s basketball team picked up their 21st win of the season on Senior Night and with that win, they clinched 4th place in the ACC. That’s significant because it’s the highest Pitt has ever finished in the conference and the first time they’ve ever earned a double bye in the ACC Tournament.
When you consider that Pitt was picked to finish 12th in the preseason poll, started 1-5 in conference play, turned things around and instead finished 21-10 and 12-8, it’s clear that it has been a heck of a season for Jeff Capel and the Panthers.
In previous times, finishing 4th in the ACC with 21 wins was a lock to make the NCAA Tournament but unfortunately times have changed because of the impact metrics have on who receives the bids to March Madness.
So, all the excitement last night has been washed away with the latest NET Rankings and KenPom.com Ratings.
Pitt started the day ranked No. 43 in the NET rankings, but despite winning and having a handful of teams lose that were ahead of them on Saturday, Pitt actually dropped a spot in the rankings. That is the same case with KenPom’s rankings as the Panthers dropped 3 spots. The goal was to try and enter the 30’s and instead Pitt dropped, which isn’t a good thing.
Considering that the bracketologists most times align with what the metrics are, don’t look for Pitt to move any in the actual bracketology. When they’re released over the next 24 hours, Pitt will likely stay as the Next 4 Out.
NET RANKINGS (MARCH 10TH)
35) Florida (dropped 7 spots)
36) Colorado State (stayed same)
37) Wake Forest (moved up 4 spots)
38) St. John’s (dropped 1 spot)
39) TCU (dropped 1 spot)
40) Nebraska (dropped 2 spots)
41) Cincinnati (rose 4 spots)
42) Mississippi State (dropped 3 spots)
43) Oklahoma (dropped 3 spots)
44) PITT (dropped 1 spot)
45) Washington State (dropped 1 spot)
46) Texas A&M (moved up 3 spots)
47) Drake (dropped 1 spot)
48) Princeton (moved up 3 spots)
49) South Carolina (dropped 2 spots)
50) Northwestern (moved up 2 spots)
KEN POM RATINGS
35) Nevada +17.10
36) Colorado State +17.08
37) Florida Atlantic +16.93
38) Boise State +16.89
39) Mississippi State +16.76
40) Oklahoma +16.52
41) Indiana State +16.45
42) Cincinnati +16.41
43) Northwestern +16.27
44) Utah State +16.06
45) Washington State +15.99
46) PITT +15.80
47) South Carolina +15.67
48) Texas A&M +15.53
49) Iowa +15.01
50) Utah +14.62
I’m going to go on a bit of a rant and it’s the same one that I had last year at this time and it’s about how the current system for March Madness is so flawed. Between the importance put into these computer rankings, items such as Quad 1/2/3 wins and just built in biased for certain conferences and coaches, it’s a bit of a joke.
I don’t care what any of the national bracketologists say or where they have Pitt. If they’d use their eyes, look at their overall and conference record, number of road wins and how they’ve been playing for the past 2 months, if Pitt isn’t a tournament team, then the current process for selecting a tournament field is broken. Another thing that should be considered by the committee but won’t be is the circumstances surround Pitt’s backcourt.
They’re one of the few or quite possibly the only team fighting for a bid to the postseason with an all-freshman backcourt. Much is being made about Pitt’s start of the season, in particular the losses to Missouri, Florida, Syracuse. No consideration will be given that those loses were at the start of the season with practically a brand-new lineup. Pitt hadn’t jelled yet and in fact, Jaland Lowe wasn’t in the starting lineup yet.
If Pitt were to play those teams now, there’s a very high probability that a couple of those losses would now be wins. The backcourt of Bub Carrington and Lowe is playing like one of the best backcourts in the entire country. I realize that it won’t be but some consideration should be given to that and a bit of common sense. However, that’s not likely a component for the NET and KenPom (LOL).
A few odds and ends that are on my mind this morning-
-I’m tired of hearing about how good the Mountain West Conference is. One of the reasons these metrics are so flawed is because of the value placed when playing one of these teams. Until someone other than San Diego State does something in the tournament, save the talk of how good the Mountain West Conference is. Keep in mind, if you exclude San Diego State, the Mountain West is 0-11 in NCAA Tournament games since 2019. Right now, they’re projected to get six bids which is laughable.
-If Rick Pitino and Tom Izzo weren’t coaching St. John’s and Michigan State, neither team would be as highly thought of as they are now. Michigan State has 18 wins and a below-average resume, yet they’re a lock for the tournament. Broken system. Same with Rick Pitino, who the national media just slobbers over.
-The national perception of the ACC is bad which is hurting Pitt but they’re a better conference in 2024 than the Big 10. Once again, the built-in perception of that conference isn’t reality. It’s an average conference with just two above average teams: Purdue and Illinois. No one in the group of Northwestern, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan State is better than Pitt, yet all five of those teams are a locked and penciled into the tournament. If you take out the terms Quad 1/2 wins, take out Ken Pom and actually look at who they’ve played and who they’ve beaten, none of them should be a lock.
I could continue but I’ll stop there.
Here’s the likely reality for where Pitt is at. As things stand right now, Pitt isn’t a tournament team and as they have for the last few weeks, are going to need help to get in.
More importantly, Pitt definitely needs another win and the good news is their next opponent is likely Wake Forest, a team they’re battling on the bubble.
If Pitt can win that game, I think they’re in but no one can ever predict what the tournament committee is thinking.
This is a good news/bad news situation. The bad news is that despite looking and playing like a tournament team, Pitt could very well be left out. The good news is that Pitt basketball is once again alive and well and very much relevant.
Buckle up and let’s see what the next few weeks have in store for us.
Couldn’t agree more. We were written off in December and like Wack-a-mole just won’t go away. We’re making Lunardi’s look bad and he has an EGO.
I think it’s time the Power 4 to abandon the NCAA and stage their own tournament, Big East can come if they want.
How’d Jumpin’ Joe do with his many Big Ten picks the last two years? And Saturday night, he gave his “love” to Providence over UConn…oh, brother!
Win and you’re in. Don’t leave anything to chance. If season were over I’d be nervous, but they still have 3 games available to punch their ticket.
8, 4 then 2, yeah three games.
8, then 4 then 2 = 3 games.
Agreed on the Mountain West 100%. Was looking at some of those penciled in teams and they havent beaten anyone. Some have lost every big test they’ve actually faced.
It’s a joke
Seriously. Start 1-5 then 11-3. Win last six at home. Win seven on the road, including at Duke and Virginia. Finish 4th in the ACC…and who’s done better than than?
Just need to win the next game and they will make it in.
H2P!!!
I think Pitt is in regardless of what they do in the ACC tourney, I’ll wait and snap out later if they are left out😂 after finishing 4th in a Power 4 conference when picked to finish 12th
Clemson last year. I think Pitt has a better NET than they ended up with last year, but they were top of the conference and were left out.
If metrics are the last word, we will not be dancing unless we win the ACC tourney, or possibly, make it to the final game. H2P !
If it were up to Lunardi, we wouldn’t get the automatic invitation. Right now we are making his dismissal in December look bad.
I agree that IF metrics are the last word, Pitt is on the outside.
Pitt’s position is even worse because there is a committee, who looks at more than just the NET/Metrics. They value non-conference strength of schedule.
Pitt’s 344 non-con SoS is the big problem.
I think 2 ACC Tourney wins gets Pitt into the NCAA.
0 ACC wins will get them at least one home NIT game.
1 ACC win they will be sweating.
I don’t understand. Doesn’t NET effectively calculate non-con strength of schedule into the metrics. So it’s counted twice?
Kind of.
When humans (Committee) look at it, and compare Pitt to other teams with similar NET, the non-con SoS is a huge detriment.
Pitt would have been better off scheduling better non-con opponents, and losing one or two close games.
Sucks to be the team who scheduled Louisville a year and a half ago as a way to bolster their strength of schedule position, or West Virginia :). Seems like if you work your way up the NET enough, where entire season strength of schedule is accounted for, looking back at non-con is just as arbitrary as looking at the last 20 games, or recent trends, for hot streaks against better competition – which they don’t do, apparently. Not just saying this because I’m a Pitt fan either, although I admit I wouldn’t be thinking about any of this otherwise.
Understood.
As a fan who has season tickets, I can say that I would prefer seeing better competition.
NC A&T, SUNY Binghamton, Jacksonville, SC St, IUPFW??? If I were on the committee, I would not look too favorably at that murderer’s row.
And, losing at home to Missou was a disaster.
At least WVU was a road game, and Or St was neutral.
Don’t forget the mighty Golden Griffins of Canisius (13-17) and Florida Gulf Coast (not the 2013 version)……..
This same discussion can be taken and compared to both the CFP and the NCAA baseball tournament.
The CFP wants the best teams RIGHT NOW (and why FSU was dismissed) and if you remember, the jackass AD from Delano kept Pitt out of the NCAA Baseball Tournament because he felt Alabama was playing better at the end of the season, over Pitt
This nonsense continues to go on with personal bias, instead of actual results.
Last year I strongly believed that Pitt wasn’t the 68th best team in the tournament. I have to thank the committee for replacing that system with one that is more confusing than the previous one, one that the coaches don’t understand, one that bracketologists disagree on and no one will get it right. The only thing that I know for sure is that Pitt is a tournament team. Their accomplishments are well known and I believe that they have made their case and the selection committee should clearly see that. If they DON’T make it back, than I’m not sure… Read more »
What it will take is the Power Four with an invitation to the Big East to stage their own tournament. At one time there was the NIT and nothing else.
I don’t know what it will take,but if Pitt doesn’t make it to the tournament, then No One that finished behind them should go. That means that the ACC will ONLY have 3 teams in the tournament. What does that say about D uquesne, who has NO path, unless they win it all. I loved the BIG EAST and playing in New York.
I poke fun at your stupidity, but this post outdoes most of your drivel. First, the non conference results will never be discounted by the committee, nor should they be. Second, with the advent of unbalanced schedules, regular season conference results aren’t apples to apples. You have really convinced me that you’re pretty clueless, skippy.
Seriously in every sport there is a belief that a hot team at the end of the year has a better chance for post season success. I guarantee you no team wants to see Pitt in their round. Let’s beat Wake Forest and shock the world with a win against N.Carolina.
Last night NC St attempted to pull an RJ Davis on Hinson. He immediately took the smaller guard inside. Capal/Hinson adapted. They kept overplaying the 3 point line and the guards kept blowing past them. Capal adapted.
But if they LOSE the next game and the Tournament invite that probably would come with it, the program would suffer reputation-wise and within the twisted minds of the recruits that might be considering them. It’s a REALLY big game.
Great article, Mike. The Mountain West getting 6 teams in while the ACC gets 4 is truly an absolute joke. The fact is, we the fans have no idea what assumptions are used in determining the “metrics.” Also, who are these people who came up with the assumptions, metrics, and models? Have they ever dribbled a basketball or attempted a 3-point shot from the corner with the shot clock winding down? More importantly, what grades did they get in Stats 101, 201, 301? (Ken Pomeroy, show us your transcripts!! By the way, Ken Pom got a graduate degree in Atmospheric… Read more »
I think that Pitt has to win its Quarterfinal game (most likely vs Wake Forest) in the ACC tourney to get into the NCAA tournament.
Yea Pitt will do that, then the selection committee pick Wake Forrest over Pitt for the Tournament. It’s just THAT stupid!!
…and the semi-final game.
This pearl clutching is too funny.,,,